Evening Heavy News: The Fed's interest rate cut has become almost a foregone conclusion. Can Bitcoin break through by taking advantage of this? Two major hidden concerns conceal key variables. Tonight, global markets will collectively focus on the Fed's interest rate decision—market bets on a 25 basis points rate cut have skyrocketed to 98%, and this "pre-announced" easing action is about to land. Historically, the Fed's monetary easing has often been a strong catalyst for Bitcoin's rise, but this time the market may not follow previous patterns. The real core that influences the trend is not the rate cut itself, but rather the subsequent policy guidance from Fed Chairman Powell. 1. There is no doubt about interest rate cuts; "expectation management" is the core focus. In simple terms, interest rate cuts mean lower funding costs and the market liquidity is expected to become more abundant. Looking back at the quantitative easing cycle of 2020 and the fermentation period of interest rate cut expectations at the end of last year, both drove Bitcoin to experience a strong upward trend. However, unlike in history, although the expectation of interest rate cuts has been fully digested, the Bitcoin price shows hesitation at a key position and has not initiated a move in advance. Behind this is a deeper concern in the market: investors are not waiting for the predetermined action of "interest rate cuts," but rather for Powell's clear statement on the subsequent policy path. Tonight we need to closely monitor the two key signals released by Powell: 3. Future policy direction: Does it imply that this rate cut is the beginning of continuous easing? If it releases a signal of sustained liquidity, market confidence will be strongly boosted; if defined as a "one-time adjustment," it may trigger a pullback due to "good news being fully priced in." ​ 4. Inflation and Employment Assessment: If inflationary pressures remain stubborn and the labor market maintains resilience, even with interest rate cuts, the market will interpret it as limited easing, and the upside potential will be constrained; conversely, if both are downplayed, it will be seen as a clear dovish signal. 2. Historical patterns under pressure: Two major economic data points become key variables. Why is the market particularly cautious this time? The core issue lies in the current economic background, which is drastically different from past "market-saving" rate cuts. Two major signals have infused uncertainty into the market: - A resilient job market: The latest non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate remains at historically low levels, indicating that the economy is not losing momentum. The Fed lacks the urgency for "flooding the market with liquidity." If subsequent easing measures fall short of expectations, the market may struggle to maintain upward momentum. ​ - The lingering shadow of inflation: Although the CPI has fallen from its peak, core inflation remains far above the 2% policy target. The lesson from 2021, when the Fed rapidly shifted to raising interest rates due to uncontrolled inflation, leading to a deep correction in Bitcoin, is still fresh in investors' minds. Once Powell emphasizes vigilance against inflation, market expectations for subsequent easing will cool significantly. 3. Practical Strategies: Response Guide for Three Major Scenarios In the face of tonight's market volatility, avoid blindly chasing after price increases or decreases. It is recommended to flexibly adjust according to the content of Powell's speech in response to the following three scenarios: - Scenario 1 (Overall Positive): Clearly signals continued interest rate cuts without mentioning inflation/employment concerns. Strategy: If Bitcoin rises sharply, avoid chasing the high and wait for a pullback to the support level to gradually build positions; if it strongly breaks through the previous high, it is necessary to remain rational, strictly control positions, and avoid full position operations. ​ - Scenario Two (Neutral to Bearish): Ambiguous stance, emphasizing "data-dependent decision-making," and mentioning inflation or employment risks. Strategy: If there is a surge, consider taking partial profits; if the price retraces, there is no need to rush to buy the dip. Be patient and wait for market sentiment to stabilize and clear signs of support before taking action. ​ - Scenario Three (Black Swan): Unexpectedly keeping the interest rate unchanged (very low probability, but needs to be guarded against) Strategy: The market may experience a short-term panic sell-off. Do not blindly cut losses or increase positions. Calmly observe the market reaction after the emotional release, and then look for suitable opportunities. Special Reminder: During the announcement of the resolution at 2:00 AM Beijing time and Powell's speech at 2:30 AM, market fluctuations may amplify sharply. Ordinary investors do not need to stay up all night watching the market; they can make decisions the next day based on clear results to avoid irrational actions caused by fatigue. 4. Long-term Perspective: The easing cycle has begun, but we need to wait for certainty to materialize. Looking to the long term, the Fed's initiation of a rate cut cycle is an inevitable trend, which will ultimately inject more abundant liquidity into the market. However, for Bitcoin to replicate the epic market conditions of 2020, two key conditions still need to be confirmed: 3. The interest rate cut cycle is clearly established: it is necessary to see the Fed's continuous and stable interest rate cut actions in order to form a truly strong macro driving force. ​ 4. Mainstream capital continues to flow in: Institutional investors typically wait for clear policy signals before entering the market in large numbers. The capital inflow situation of Bitcoin ETFs will be a key barometer for observing institutional sentiment. Summary For ordinary investors, the core tonight is to maintain patience and calm. The Fed's decisions and guidance are not black and white, and the market's reactions are often complex and variable. Instead of betting on directional trades, it's better to focus on Powell's core statements regarding the "subsequent policy path" and the "economic fundamentals." The real trading opportunities are not only hidden in tonight's volatility but also exist in the trends after the situation becomes clear tomorrow. In the cryptocurrency market, opportunities are never lacking; what is lacking is a sense of clarity and restraint #今日你看涨还是看跌？ .

Liquidity seems to be returning to SOL. but limited to the part where the strong get stronger, that is, it is the previous leading coins that continue to exert strength, Value Return?