Zcash Price Prediction: Weekly pump of 21% surges against the market, technical breakthrough points to 434 USD

The Federal Reserve (FED) announced a rate cut of 25 basis points, but Chairman Powell hinted that there may not be another cut in December. Despite a slight fall in both Bitcoin and Ethereum, Zcash (ZEC) remains strong, with an increase of over 21% this week, outperforming most mainstream assets. On the 4-hour chart, ZEC has recently completed a breakout from an ascending triangle, predicting a price rise to $434, about a 30% increase from the current level.

Ascending Triangle Breakout Completed: Zcash Price Prediction Technical Analysis

(Source: Trading View)

On the 4-hour chart, ZEC recently completed a rising triangle breakout, a pattern that often indicates that after the consolidation phase ends, the price will continue to rise. Previously, the token had been tightly consolidating below the resistance level around $310, which has been limiting the price rise over the past few weeks.

An ascending triangle is a classic bullish technical formation. The formation process is as follows: the price encounters a horizontal resistance level above (in this case, at 310 dollars), but the lows of each pullback are consistently rising, forming an ascending support line. This price action indicates that buying pressure is gradually increasing while selling pressure is gradually decreasing. When the price ultimately breaks through the horizontal resistance level, it usually triggers a strong upward trend.

After multiple attempts, ZEC finally broke through the resistance level of 310 USD, soaring to a local high close to 375 USD. This rise from 310 USD to 375 USD is approximately 21%, consistent with the overall increase of ZEC this week. As expected, the strong rise triggered short-term profit-taking, leading to a price pullback towards the breakout area.

Currently, ZEC has successfully retested the breakout level of 310 dollars, and the chart shows that it has confirmed this point, with the trading price around 332 dollars—staying above the area that has previously turned from resistance to support. This trend indicates that buyers are defending the breakout level, suggesting that the upward momentum remains strong.

Classic Characteristics of Breakthrough-Backtest Patterns:

Breakthrough Stage: ZEC rose from 310 USD to 375 USD, a pump of 21%

Backtesting Phase: The price has retraced to test the resistance level of 310 dollars, which has now turned into support.

Confirmation Phase: Currently stabilizing at 332 dollars, holding above the breakout level.

Measurement Target: Based on the height of the triangle, the target position is 434 USD.

Potential rise: From the current $332 to $434, about 30% increase space.

This classic pattern of breakthrough-test-confirmation has high reliability in technical analysis. The success of the test indicates that a new support level has been established, and the market has a high level of recognition for this price level. If the test fails and the price falls below 310 USD, the breakthrough is invalid. However, as it stands, the test has been successfully completed.

Zcash Price Prediction: How to Calculate the $434 Target

According to the measurement of the ascending triangle's movement target forecast, the price target for Zcash is predicted to be 434 USD. If the upward momentum continues, it would rise approximately 30% from the current level. How is this target calculated?

The measurement method for an ascending triangle is: take the height at the widest part of the triangle (i.e., the price fluctuation range during the initial phase of the pattern), and then project this height upwards from the breakout point. Specifically for the case of ZEC, if the fluctuation range during the initial formation of the triangle is around 120 dollars, then adding 120 dollars upwards from the breakout point of 310 dollars yields a target range of approximately 430-440 dollars.

This measurement method is widely used in technical analysis, and its theoretical basis is: the height of the consolidation pattern reflects the degree of divergence among market participants. After a breakout, this divergence is resolved, and the price will move in the direction of the breakout for a distance equivalent to the height of the pattern. Although this is not an exact science, historical statistics show that the accuracy of this method is quite high.

If the ZEC price holds above 310 USD and continues its current strength with increased trading volume, the technical indicators suggest it is likely to continue rising. If it decisively breaks through the recent high of 375 USD, it will confirm the re-emergence of bullish pressure and could trigger the next wave of upward movement. After breaking through 375 USD, the path to 434 USD will become clear.

Key Support at 310 USD: Failing to Hold Will Change Everything

However, if ZEC falls below the support level of 310 USD, it may indicate a temporary failure of the retest, leading to a short-term pullback, after which it will attempt to break through again. 310 USD is now the most critical technical level in Zcash price predictions, serving as a classic case of former resistance turning into support.

Breaking below $310 will trigger a series of chain reactions. First, from a technical perspective, a failed breakout will attract technical traders to exit, leading to increased selling pressure. Second, psychologically, market confidence will be undermined, and investors who originally hoped for a rise may turn to a wait-and-see approach or even short-sell. Third, from a pattern theory standpoint, a failed breakout often leads to prices returning within the pattern, even testing the bottom support of the pattern.

If the 310 dollar support is lost, the downside target for Zcash price predictions may be around 280 dollars, which is a key support area during the formation of the ascending triangle. In a more extreme scenario, if the 280 dollar level is also lost, it could return to a deeper support level of 250 dollars.

Therefore, for the Zcash price prediction, 310 dollars is an absolute lifeline. Maintaining this level targets 434 dollars; losing this level may lead back to 280 dollars or even lower. Traders should closely monitor the volume changes and price behavior in this price area.

The Federal Reserve (FED) Policy and the Bearish Performance of ZEC

The Federal Reserve (FED) announced a 25 basis point rate cut, but Chairman Powell hinted that there may be no further cuts in December. This mixed signal led to a slight fall in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). However, ZEC saw an increase of over 21% this week, outperforming most mainstream assets, demonstrating its upward momentum independent of the broader market.

This counter-market performance is significant in Zcash price prediction. It indicates that the rise of ZEC is not solely benefiting from a macro environment of liquidity easing, but has its own driving factors. These driving factors include: the revival of the privacy coin narrative, performance improvements brought by technological upgrades, and the effect of market funds rotating from mainstream coins to altcoins.

When the market falls while individual coins rise, it usually indicates that there are strong independent catalysts for that coin. This independence is both an advantage and a risk. The advantage is that even if the market continues to adjust, ZEC may still maintain strength. The risk is that once the independent catalyst fades, ZEC may face downward pressure.

Currently, the structure still appears constructive, with a combination of breakthrough confirmation and backtesting validation, strongly suggesting that ZEC may be preparing for another round of rising trends in the upcoming trading days. If the Federal Reserve unexpectedly continues to cut interest rates in December, or if the trade agreement between Trump and Xi boosts market sentiment, ZEC may accelerate its rise under the dual support of a favorable macro environment and strong technical aspects.