AI Weekly Hotspots Report (10.17 - 10.24)

You are reading the weekly industry hotspot report generated for you by Gate AI Lab. Take a look at the most noteworthy market trends and important events from last week, and we recommend investment analyses and financial strategies for you.

Word count: 7183 words ｜ Reading time 9.7 minutes.

Directory:

1. Market Trends
2. Analysis of liquidity and price fluctuations
3. Hot Topics
4. Main Events
5. Global Policies
6. Investment Analysis

1. Market Trends

1.1. Market Sentiment

This week, the total market value of cryptocurrencies reached $3.579 trillion, a decrease of 7.9% compared to the previous period. Exchange trading volume decreased to $50.61 trillion. The price of Bitcoin fell by 4% to $110,071.38. Overall market sentiment is bearish, with a dominant trend of decline. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's hawkish remarks suppressed buying in the crypto market, leading to a total liquidation of $843 million.

According to the Gate Fear and Greed Index, the market sentiment today is “Fear”, with a Fear and Greed Index of 30, indicating that the overall market sentiment is relatively pessimistic.

Crypto & Tradition Overview as of 09am UTC+8, Oct 24

1.2. Macroeconomic Impact

Recent data shows that the pace of global economic recovery is slowing down. The Eurozone's CPI in October rose by 10.7% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 10.3%, reaching a new high. The US CPI in September increased by 8.2% year-on-year, higher than the expected 8.1%. Persistent high inflation has intensified the pressure on central banks in various countries to raise interest rates.

In the U.S., the PPI for September rose by 8.5% year-on-year, higher than the expected 8.4%. In the Eurozone, the PPI for September rose by 41.7% year-on-year, hitting a record high. Upstream prices continue to rise, which will further push up the CPI. The U.S. PMI for September is 50.9, slightly lower than the previous value of 51.5, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing expansion. The Eurozone's composite PMI for October is 47.1, below the previous value of 48.1, indicating a contraction in economic activity.

The annualized number of new housing starts in the U.S. for September was 1.439 million units, lower than the expected 1.475 million units. Used car prices fell by 1.1% month-on-month. The number of initial jobless claims was 214,000, lower than the expected 235,000. Economic data is mixed, with the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in December being the highest at 63.5%.

Overall, high inflation has forced central banks around the world to continue raising interest rates, increasing the risk of economic slowdown. This will continue to weigh on risk assets, and the cryptocurrency market is expected to face pressure in the short term.

1.3 Financial Calendar

Analysis Summary:

This week, the focus is on important data such as the US third quarter GDP, September core PCE price index, October consumer confidence index, third quarter employment cost index, October ISM manufacturing PMI, and October non-farm payroll numbers and unemployment rate. This data will reflect the conditions of US economic growth, inflation, and the job market, which are significant indicators for the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy path for the year.

Important data includes the total number of existing home sales in September, the FHFA house price index for September, personal spending in September, and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index for October, reflecting the conditions of the real estate market, consumer spending, and confidence.

Low importance data includes the October Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, the October Chicago PMI, and the September Construction Spending, which reflect the regional manufacturing and construction conditions.

2. Analysis of Fund Supply and Price Fluctuations

2.1. Price Volatility Analysis

BTC Volatility Based on the daily closing prices of BTC over the past week, the weekly volatility of BTC is 1.72%.

Price Fluctuation and Reasons This week, the price of BTC fluctuated between $107,000 and $113,000. The price increase was mainly driven by continued buying from institutional investors, while the decline was due to market concerns about a global economic slowdown.

Impact of Trading Volume Changes The increase in trading volume is often seen as a bullish signal, reflecting an increase in market activity. This week, the average daily trading volume of BTC has increased compared to last week, which may indicate the potential for price increases.

Market Activity and Price Direction Despite increased price volatility, BTC continues to trade within a relatively narrow range, indicating that both bulls and bears are still in a tug-of-war. Only when the price breaks through key resistance or support levels can the dominant direction for the next move be determined.

2.2. Capital Market Analysis

According to the latest capital flow data, Bitcoin ( BTC ) has shown a net inflow trend in the past week, with a total net inflow amount of 209 million USD. This indicates that institutional investors and large funds are continuously flowing into the Bitcoin market, which is beneficial for the rise in Bitcoin prices.

At the same time, Ethereum (ETH) has also seen a net inflow of 104 million USD over the past week. With the continuous development of the Ethereum ecosystem and the promotion of applications like DeFi, Ethereum continues to attract capital inflows.

On the other hand, smaller market cap cryptocurrencies like ZBT and PROVE have seen a significant outflow of funds. This may reflect that investors are gradually withdrawing from higher-risk small-cap coins and are instead favoring large-cap mainstream coins.

Overall, recent funding data shows that institutional investors and large-cap funds are continuously flowing into the mainstream cryptocurrency market, which is beneficial for the price increase of mainstream coins. However, investors should also be wary of the investment risks associated with small-cap coins.

2.3. Smart Money Analysis

BTC Large Capital Movements Large funds in BTC have recently shown a net outflow trend, but the outflow has slowed down. This indicates that large funds still maintain a cautious attitude towards BTC, but there has been some stop-loss liquidation. Overall, the selling pressure from large funds on BTC is slightly greater than the support.

ETH Large Capital Movements Large funds have shown a net inflow trend for ETH recently, with an increase in inflow volume. This indicates that large funds have gained more confidence in ETH and are gradually accumulating positions. Overall, the support from large funds for ETH slightly outweighs the selling pressure.

Other cryptocurrencies large capital trends The capital flows of other mainstream cryptocurrencies are mixed. Popular coins like SOL and AVAX show a net inflow of large funds, indicating a strong willingness to go long. In contrast, traditional coins like XRP and LTC show a net outflow of large funds, reflecting a certain level of wait-and-see sentiment.

Market Outlook Overall, large funds have a cautious attitude towards the crypto market. The movements of large funds in major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH will determine the market's trend. If large funds continue to flow in, it will provide strong support for the market's rise. Conversely, if large funds continue to flow out, the market will face downward pressure.

3. Hot Topics

Can Bitcoin eliminate the $38 trillion debt of the United States?

The Grim Reality of the $38 Trillion Debt Crisis

The United States has never owed such a huge debt as it does today. Some believe the solution is not political reform or raising taxes, but Bitcoin itself. The U.S. national debt has exceeded $38 trillion, which is nearly 31% of the country's annual GDP. Notably, this figure also marks one of the fastest periods of debt accumulation in modern history.

According to data from the Kobeissi Letter, Washington's new debt this month exceeds $500 billion, equivalent to an increase of about $23 billion per day. The company added that at this rate, “as long as the time is long enough, the probability of U.S. bankruptcy is 100%.” This warning has sounded the alarm for the whole world, showing the unsustainability of the current fiscal policy of the U.S. government.

However, Bitcoin supporters believe this proves that fiat currency has reached its limit of credibility. Therefore, the idea circulating in crypto forums and policy debates is both radical and simple: what if Bitcoin could one day help eliminate the US debt?

The theoretical calculation for the Bitcoin price needs to reach $11.65 million

If the United States really tried to repay its debt with Bitcoin, to what extent would the price of Bitcoin need to rise? At first glance, this math problem seems quite elegant. Dividing the $38 trillion national debt by the circulating supply of Bitcoin, 19.93 million BTC, you get a figure of nearly $11.65 million per Bitcoin.

At this Bitcoin price, the total market value of Bitcoin would correspond to the entire debt burden of the U.S. government. This means that the price of Bitcoin needs to rise from the current approximately $108,000 to $11,650,000, an increase of about 1,000 times.

However, this equation is based on an important assumption: the U.S. government owns all the circulating bitcoins. When you consider the reality, this equation becomes invalid.

Real-world Calculation: Bitcoin Price Needs to Reach $1,165,000

In fact, the U.S. government does not own 19,930,000 bitcoins; it only holds a small portion of that. According to Bitcoin treasury data, the U.S. currently holds approximately 326,373 BTC, which accounts for about 1.6% of the total BTC supply.

If Washington tries to use this money solely to pay off its debt, the price of Bitcoin will increase significantly. Dividing 38 trillion dollars by 326,373 Bitcoins results in each Bitcoin being worth 1.165 million dollars. This is about 1,000 times higher than the current market price.

According to this valuation, the total market value of Bitcoin will soar to about $230 trillion, more than twice the world's GDP. The absurdity of this figure is obvious.

The Profound Truth Behind the Numbers

Although Bitcoin cannot truly eliminate America's debt, it reveals a deeper truth about modern finance. It indicates that the speed at which governments create debt outpaces the speed at which the market provides reliable collateral. Each new borrowing expands the gap between the value represented by money and the value it measures.

This asymmetry explains why Bitcoin continues to resonate in policy debates and portfolio strategies. Its design with a cap of 21 million BTC stands in silent contrast to financial systems built on a foundation of perpetual expansion. Scarcity, once regarded as a relic of the golden age, has now become the most valuable commodity in currency.

Every time the U.S. debt increases by one trillion dollars, it reinforces the argument that Bitcoin has a limited supply as opposed to unlimited credit. This also helps explain why institutional investors' interest is deepening through spot ETFs, corporate treasuries, and even speculative discussions of sovereign reserves. For investors, Bitcoin has evolved from a curiosity into a macro hedge against a world where the denominator ( dollars itself ) is no longer fixed.

The idea that Bitcoin prices could eliminate US debt exposes the appeal of the currency in the context of fiscal uncertainty and government liabilities. The Trump administration's strategic Bitcoin reserve plan, although it cannot truly address the debt issue, symbolizes the government's recognition of alternative assets. This policy shift in itself raises questions about the sustainability of the fiat currency system.

Three Major Barriers of Bitcoin as a Debt Solution: Supply Limitation: The United States holds only 326,000 BTC, far from enough to cover $38 trillion in debt. Liquidity Crisis: Massive sell-offs will destroy market depth, causing Bitcoin prices to plummet rather than rise. Market Value Paradox: The required market value of 230 trillion dollars exceeds the global GDP, which is fundamentally unfeasible.

4. Major Events

Major Event Review

1. 2025-10-23 Trump initiates a digital trade war

The Trump administration is considering broad export restrictions on software and other products originating from the United States in response to China's export restrictions on rare earth minerals. This could impact the global tech industry, from airplanes to smartphones. China has warned it will take “resolute countermeasures.” This highlights the escalation of the digital cold war between the U.S. and China.

2. 2025-10-23 Hong Kong stock company makes a large purchase of ETH

Hong Kong listed company Haotian International Construction Investment Group purchased a total of 646 ETH through public market transactions, with a transaction amount of approximately 2.71 million US dollars. This reflects institutional investors' continued optimism towards Ethereum.

3. 2025-10-23 Polymarket seeks $15 billion valuation funding

The decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket is seeking a new round of financing, targeting a valuation of up to $15 billion. This highlights the optimistic expectations of institutional capital regarding the prospects of the crypto space.

4. 2025-10-23 Primev launches FAST RPC technology

The Ethereum infrastructure platform Primev has launched FAST RPC technology, enabling Ethereum transactions to achieve pre-confirmation and lock into blocks within 200 milliseconds. This is expected to significantly enhance the transaction speed and user experience of Ethereum.

5. 2025-10-23 Surge in Cryptocurrency ETF Applications

Currently, there are 155 ETP applications in the cryptocurrency market, and it is expected that more than 200 related products may emerge in the next 12 months. Analysts are optimistic about the prospects of index products, and traditional investors tend to adopt diversification investment strategies.

6. 2025-10-23 Sonic Mainnet Testnet Node Upgrade

Sonic has announced that all nodes on the mainnet and testnet must upgrade to version 2.1.2 immediately to avoid disconnection. This version introduces native fee subsidies and key security improvements in preparation for the upcoming Pectra compatibility upgrade.

7. 2025-10-22 KDA plummets 60% attracting attention

Kadena(KDA) has dropped 60.24% in the last 24 hours, attracting market attention. Kadena is a blockchain platform designed specifically for enterprise applications, utilizing a scalable PoW consensus mechanism.

8. 2025-10-22 Iron Fish rises 88%

Iron Fish(IRON)In the last 24 hours, it has increased by 87.89%, reaching a high of $0.73. Iron Fish is a zero-knowledge Layer-1 blockchain that provides optional privacy for transparent on-chain assets.

9. 2025-10-22 Bealls accepts cryptocurrency payments

The American department store chain Bealls has announced that it will accept dozens of cryptocurrencies as a payment method, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and major stablecoins. This marks a further penetration of crypto payments in the physical retail sector.

10. 2025-10-22 Maji Brother ETH Long Position Liquidation

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, Ma Ji Da Ge Huang Li Cheng's ETH 25x leveraged long position was completely liquidated, resulting in a loss of 1.57 million dollars. He then reopened a 25x leveraged ETH long position.

11. 2025-10-22 Tokenized Stock Trading Volume Soars

According to reports, the trading volume of tokenized stocks on the Solana chain has increased by 190 times month-on-month, with the platform accounting for 76.5% market share. This reflects the preference of institutional investors for the Solana ecosystem.

12. 2025-10-22 Tesla Bitcoin Earnings 80 million USD

Tesla held 11,509 bitcoins unchanged in the third quarter, confirming approximately $80 million in gains due to the price increase, with a digital asset valuation of about $1.35 billion.

13. 2025-10-21 Whale fund inflow of $5.56 billion

According to monitoring, the inflow of whale transactions exceeding 1000 BTC in the past 30 days reached 5.56 billion USD. This has a significant impact on the price trend of Bitcoin.

14. Goldman Sachs maintains gold price target of $4900 for 2025-10-21

Goldman Sachs maintains its target price forecast of $4,900 per ounce for gold by the end of 2026. It believes that due to the increasing interest in gold as a portfolio diversification tool, risks are rising.

15. 2025-10-21 Trump cancels meeting with Putin

Trump canceled his meeting with Putin, believing it is not appropriate at this stage, and hinted that both Russia and Ukraine are not yet ready to negotiate seriously. Analysts believe the U.S. needs to rely on European support to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

5. Global Policies

6. Investment Analysis

6.1. Investment Recommendations

Market trends: Bitcoin is fluctuating around $115,000, with a rebound in the altcoin market. Dogecoin's dominance has broken through a 3.5-year trend line, indicating a potential entry into a new upward cycle.

Hot News: Hong Kong approves the listing of the first Solana ETF; the Federal Reserve may end its balance sheet reduction this month; the Trump administration is considering restrictions on software exports.

Disclaimer: The above suggestions are based solely on current market analysis and do not constitute financial advice. Investment involves risks; please operate cautiously.

6.3. Financial Management Products

1. Yubi Treasure

Yu Bi Bao helps to match users with idle assets and those in need of borrowing. After users subscribe to Yu Bi Bao, the system will determine whether the loan is successful and the interest rate for that hour based on the user's set lending rate and actual borrowing needs at each full hour. Successful loans will earn interest for that hour.

The total amount of USDT in the Yubi Treasure is 350,193,997.59, with an estimated annualized return rate of 16.65% + 8.87%.

2. Wealth Management Treasure

The Wealth Management Treasure is a one-stop comprehensive wealth management service center established by Gate, including demand deposits, fixed deposits, and all other wealth management plans, offering users hundreds of financial products in various types of digital currencies.

3. Structured Finance

Gate structured financial products are a new type of financial product based on a combination of fixed income and options, among other financial derivatives. Generally, the settlement yield level is determined by comparing the performance of the underlying asset's price during the investment period with a specified reference price, and can be divided into two types: principal-protected and aggressive.

Okay, I will generate the table content according to your request.

Annotation示意：

• TradFi is the interest rate data of the traditional financial system.
• CeFi is the interest rate range for centralized cryptocurrency financial platforms.
• DeFi is the range of interest rates for decentralized financial platforms.

Disclaimer: The above data is for reference only, actual interest rates may vary, investment involves risks, and caution is advised when entering the market.

6.4. Technical Analysis: Bollinger Band Trading Strategy Backtesting

Trading Strategy

• When the ETH price approaches or breaks through the upper band, take a selling action with a position of 20%.
• When the ETH price approaches or breaks through the lower bound, take a buy action with a position of 20%.
• The initial principal is 100,000.00 USDT

Backtesting Results

Based on the above trading strategy, a backtest of ETH's historical data from March 2016 to October 2025 yielded the following results:

• Final yield: 112.37%
• Maximum Drawdown: -28.65%
• Annualized Volatility: 52.28%
• Total Transactions: 376 times
• Profitable trades: 198 times, profit rate is 52.66%

Data Analysis

• This strategy performs well in an ETH bull market, but is prone to significant drawdowns in a bear market.
• The annualized volatility is relatively high, the risk is considerable, and it is not suitable for investors with a lower risk tolerance.
• The probability of profitable trades is slightly higher than 50%, but the fluctuations of gains and losses per trade are also quite large.
• In a volatile market, the performance of this strategy is generally average and can be easily disturbed by high-frequency noise.

Pros and Cons Summary

Advantages:

• Simple operation, can be executed with a small number of indicators.
• Can achieve good returns in a bull market.
• Risk is controllable, with each position not exceeding 20%

Disadvantages:

• It is easy to suffer significant drawdowns in a bear market.
• The annualized volatility is relatively high, and the risk is considerable.
• Performed generally in a volatile market.
• Unable to capture the timing of trend reversals

Overall, this strategy is more suitable for a trending bull market and requires investors to have a higher risk tolerance. In practice, it can be optimized and improved by combining with other indicators and analysis methods.