Unveiling the Mystery of Digital Asset Cycles: Why Crypto Cycles Are No Longer “Every 4 Years”

Why is the crypto cycle important?

In digital asset investment, understanding crypto cycles helps to grasp the market rhythm: when there might be a significant rise and when there might be a decline. If beginners have no concept of cycles, they often miss good entry opportunities during a bull market or panic and exit during a decline. A good understanding of cycles = more composure.

Limitations of the classic “4-year” model

Many people believe that Bitcoin halves approximately every 4 years, triggering a rise → peak → decline. However, recent studies indicate that these past patterns may not apply to the future.

For example, some retail traders sold early due to their belief in “4 years,” leading to an accelerated decline. In addition, the market ecology has changed: the proportion of institutions has increased, the structure of derivatives has changed, and the regulatory and liquidity environments are different.

The three major factors of periodic changes in the current environment

The delay in liquidity injection is prolonged.
In traditional cycles, capital flows in quickly, but the current global macro environment has caused delays in capital reaching the final asset markets. Some expect the next bull market may be postponed until 2026 or even later.

Institutional dominance replaces public speculation
In the past, bull markets were often driven by retail enthusiasm, but now an increasing number of institutions and companies are entering the market and holding long-term, which has changed the rhythm of capital inflows and outflows.

Macroeconomics and financial cycles have become crucial.
The market is no longer solely determined by the rhythm of digital assets themselves, but is also influenced by inflation, interest rates, geopolitics, monetary policy, and other factors. Relying solely on “halving” cannot cover all variables.

How can beginners adjust their strategies?

Extend time perspective
Do not assume “the peak is just around the corner”; the bull market may last longer, rise higher, or take more time to wait. Set mid-term goals, and do not rush to complete them within “4 years.”

Dynamic observation indicators rather than fixed formulas
Focus on indicators such as the Puell Multiple, Pi Cycle Indicator, exchange balances, and institutional inflows, rather than just “halving + 12-18 months.”

Risk management first
Cyclical changes imply higher uncertainty. Set stop-loss orders, build positions in batches, and avoid betting everything on “the next bull market is just around the corner.” For beginners, ensuring the safety of the principal is more important than chasing highs.

Summary

Overall, while crypto cycles remain an important logic in the digital asset market, the classic “every 4 years” rhythm is being challenged. Liquidity lags, institutional dominance, and macro environmental variables may all lead to longer cycles or changes in rhythm. For newcomers, understanding this change, extending the time horizon, dynamically adjusting strategies, and focusing on risk is a more robust approach.