Trade Timing: The aftermath of the FOMC meeting continues. Bitcoin needs to stay above 115,000 on the weekly chart to ensure the bull market continues. Ether falling below $3,680 would be unfavorable for the medium-term bullish outlook.

Daily Market Highlights and Trend Analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

US-China trade relations have made positive progress, with both sides reaching consensus during consultations in Kuala Lumpur. The US will cancel the 10% fentanyl tariff and continue a one-year suspension of 24% reciprocal tariffs, while also suspending export controls on 50% of penetration rules and maritime investigations under Section 301 for one year. China has also adjusted its countermeasures accordingly. However, investor doubts about the Federal Reserve’s rate cut outlook continue to ferment. After the FOMC meeting, market sentiment was subdued, and Meta’s stock plummeted 11% due to AI expenditure plans. Regarding the widely discussed AI wave, UBS reports that, although bubble conditions are maturing, key top signals have not yet appeared. The current Mag 6 tech giants’ 35x P/E ratio remains well below the levels seen during the dot-com bubble, indicating the market is still in the “early stage of potential bubble.”

Additionally, Goldman Sachs CEO warned that the US debt level, nearing $40 trillion, could push the economy toward “liquidation” if not supported by corresponding economic growth. Notably, Fintech giant Fiserv saw its stock plunge about 44% in one day on Wednesday due to management errors, pricing strategy failures, and performance well below expectations, evaporating approximately $30 billion in market value.

In the Bitcoin market, prices fluctuated after the FOMC meeting, briefly falling below $107,000. Analysts have mixed views on the outlook but generally focus on key support levels. Analyst Killa believes that, although the overall structure remains bullish, the price has failed three times to break the monthly opening price. If it falls below the $107,000–$108,000 range, it could trigger a deeper correction to $101,000–$102,000, or even touch the $97,000–$98,000 zone below $100,000. To confirm a bull run continuation, a weekly close above $115,000 is needed. Crypto Chase considers the $100,000 mark as the last chance for Bitcoin to attempt a new all-time high in the short term and plans to position long orders near that level. Ted emphasizes that since Q1 2023, Bitcoin’s weekly closing price has never fallen below the 50-week moving average, making this level crucial for a bull market. From a cycle perspective, analyst Mister Crypto reminds that 558 days have passed since the 2024 halving, entering a historical top-of-bull market window; Jesse Olson also points out a bearish MACD crossover on the three-week chart, which previously signaled market tops in 2017 and 2021. Despite short-term pressure, Coinbase increased its Bitcoin holdings by 2,772 coins in Q3, and Strategy recently transferred 22,704 BTC to new wallets.

Ethereum also faces pressure, trading around the $4,000 mark without stabilizing firmly. Market data shows low premium rates in Ethereum futures, weak ETF fund flows, and a 4% decline in on-chain active addresses and 16% in network fees, reflecting subdued market demand. Analyst Man of Bitcoin notes that Ethereum’s price reversed before reaching the support at $3,681. If it can break through the downtrend line, it may signal the start of a new rally. However, another analyst, Crypto_Jobs, remains cautious, suggesting a potential bearish “second test” on the daily chart, with a possible pullback to support zones at $3,450 or $3,200, and warns that falling below $3,180 would be unfavorable for medium-term bullish prospects. Conversely, some analysts like FibonacciTrading believe that even a correction back to $3,300 remains a healthy adjustment within an uptrend. Cactus states that as long as the support zone of $3,800–$4,200 holds, a rally in Q4 remains possible. Looking long-term, Standard Chartered’s digital asset research head Geoffrey Kendrick predicts that by 2028, the RWA tokenization market will reach $2 trillion, with the majority activity occurring on the Ethereum network. Coinbase also increased its Ethereum holdings by 11,933 coins in Q3.

Solana’s spot ETF has continued to attract funds, with a single-day net inflow of $37.33 million on October 30, marking three consecutive days of inflows. Matt Hougan of Bitwise is optimistic that Solana can gain more market share in the growing stablecoin and tokenization markets due to its technological advantages. However, analyst Ted believes that before the Federal Reserve begins quantitative easing, the altcoin market may struggle to rebound comprehensively. Additionally, Kite (KITE) announced it will launch on Binance Alpha on November 3, with 48% of its token economy allocated to the ecosystem and community. Since its token started trading on Binance pre-market, it has been rising steadily, up 33% in the past 24 hours.

2. Key Data (as of October 31, 13:00 HKT)

(Source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, CoinMarketCap, GMGN)

• Bitcoin: $109,632 (+17.31% YTD), spot trading volume: $69.88 billion
• Ethereum: $3,831 (+14.87% YTD), spot trading volume: $34.9 billion
• Fear & Greed Index: 31 (Fear)
• Average GAS: BTC: 1 sat/vB, ETH: 0.1 Gwei
• Market Share: BTC 59.4%, ETH 12.6%
• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, ETH, BTC, SOL, ENSO
• 24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 48.9% / 51.1%
• Sector performance: L2 sector down 6.98%, NFT sector down 5.66%
• 24-hour liquidation data: Total 219,381 traders liquidated, total liquidation amount $885 million, with BTC liquidations at $309 million, ETH at $194 million, and HYPE at $193.36 million
• BTC medium to long-term trend channel: upper boundary at $112,306.24, lower boundary at $110,082.35
• ETH medium to long-term trend channel: upper boundary at $4,007.59, lower boundary at $3,928.24

Note: When prices are above the upper boundary and below the lower boundary, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish or bearish trend respectively. When prices fluctuate within the range or repeatedly test the support/resistance zones, it suggests accumulation or distribution phases.

3. ETF Flows (as of October 30)

• Bitcoin ETFs: -$488 million, 12 ETFs with no net inflow
• Ethereum ETFs: -$184 million, 9 ETFs with no net inflow

4. Today’s Preview

• Binance Alpha will launch NB, BAY, and BEAT tokens with airdrops
• Binance Wallet’s second Prime Sale Pre-TGE will list Momentum (MMT)
• Binance will remove spot trading pairs ATA/BTC, LAYER/BNB, and POWR/ETH
• MtGox repayment deadline extended from October 31 to 2026
• dYdX community proposes a three-month trial starting November 1: allocate 100% of protocol fees for DYDX buybacks
• Optimism (OP) will unlock approximately 31.34 million tokens at 8:00 AM on October 31, representing 1.71% of current circulation, valued at about $14.2 million
• Immutable (IMX) will unlock approximately 24.52 million tokens at 8:00 AM on October 31, representing 1.24% of current circulation, valued at about $13.3 million
• Sui (SUI) will unlock approximately 43.96 million tokens at 8:00 AM Beijing time on November 1, representing 1.21% of current circulation, valued at about $113 million
• EigenCloud (EIGEN) will unlock approximately 36.82 million tokens at 12:00 PM on November 1, representing 12.10% of current circulation, valued at about $41.6 million

Top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap with the biggest gains today: Zcash +11.8%, Rain +11.4%, Dash +6.1%, MemeCore +5.2%, Aerodrome Finance +3.8%.

5. Hot News

• Strategy transferred a total of 22,704 BTC, approximately $2.45 billion, to multiple new addresses
• Ether.Fi community proposed allocating $50 million for ETHFI buyback plans
• Jupiter community is voting on whether to burn 130 million JUP previously repurchased
• Listed company SEGG Media plans to launch a $300 million digital asset initiative, initially focusing on Bitcoin
• Bitmine appears to have received 44,036 ETH from two new wallets on CEX, worth $1.66 billion
• Jump Crypto transferred $205 million worth of SOL to Galaxy Digital early this morning and received 2,455 BTC in return
• UFC partnership project FIGHT raised $183 million in its public offering, surpassing the target by over 100 times