Bitcoin Price Prediction: French Government Gambles $48 Billion, Will It Ignite a Revolution in the EU?

France has proposed to use about 2% of its forex reserves (around 48 billion USD) to purchase Bitcoin, which is undoubtedly a bold challenge to the EU's digital euro agenda. This motion, put forward by MP Éric Ciotti, aims to enhance national financial sovereignty. If approved, France will become the first major European country to officially recognize Bitcoin reserves, following the United States and Bhutan.

France's $48 billion Bitcoin reserve challenges digital euro

France is considering a proposal aimed at adopting Bitcoin and stablecoins while rejecting the European Central Bank's digital euro. This motion, proposed by Éric Ciotti of the “Republican Right Alliance”, calls for France to use its 2% forex reserves (approximately $48 billion) to purchase Bitcoin to enhance the country's financial independence. The plan also suggests allowing cryptocurrencies to be used as institutional collateral and revising EU financial regulations to support broader cryptocurrency integration.

This progress shows that Europe's political support for Bitcoin is strengthening. With the increase in investor confidence, Bitcoin price predictions are optimistic. If France really implements this plan, it will become the first major economy within the EU to adopt Bitcoin reserves as an official national strategy, potentially triggering a follow-up effect from other EU member states. Countries like Germany, Italy, and Spain may reassess their forex reserve allocation strategies if they observe France's successful experience.

The scale of 48 billion US dollars has significant implications in the Bitcoin market. At the current Bitcoin price of approximately 112,000 US dollars, 48 billion US dollars can buy about 428,000 Bitcoins, which accounts for about 2% of the total Bitcoin supply of 21 million coins. This national-level buying demand will have a structural impact on market supply and demand, especially if the purchases are spread over a period of 7 to 8 years, providing continuous buying support for Bitcoin prices.

The French proposal also includes opposition to the digital euro. The European Central Bank is actively promoting the digital euro project, but the French right views it as a threat to monetary sovereignty and personal privacy. In contrast, decentralized Bitcoin and market-driven stablecoins are seen as alternatives that align more closely with the ideals of freedom and sovereignty. This political divergence may spark broader cryptocurrency policy debates within the EU.

SoFi and BlackRock dual institutional endorsement

SoFi Technologies announced plans to begin Bitcoin and cryptocurrency trading by the end of 2025 after reporting record third-quarter earnings. The fintech giant reported a 38% year-over-year revenue increase to $950 million, with earnings per share of $0.11, exceeding analyst expectations. CEO Anthony Noto stated that digital assets will play a key role in SoFi's future development, and the company also plans to launch its self-developed SoFi dollar stablecoin in early 2026.

SoFi initially focused on student loans and has now developed into a complete financial ecosystem, serving over 9 million members. Its entry into the cryptocurrency space marks another step towards the mainstream adoption of cryptocurrencies, enhancing market optimism. SoFi also plans to expand its blockchain-based international transfer services to enable faster and cheaper payment methods. This comprehensive embrace by the fintech giant provides medium to long-term demand support for Bitcoin price forecasts.

Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, made a more significant statement. He pointed out at the Future Investment Initiative conference held in Saudi Arabia that as gold prices fall below $4,000 per ounce, central banks around the world are increasingly exploring tokenization and digital assets. Fink described gold and cryptocurrencies as “panic assets,” which investors use to hedge against risks in traditional markets. Despite central banks continuing to buy gold at record levels, the recent drop in gold prices has raised concerns about excessive reliance on the dollar.

Fink's support for tokenization and recognition of the growing role of cryptocurrencies has been interpreted by traders as a positive sign for Bitcoin's long-term prospects. BlackRock, as the world's largest asset management company managing over $10 trillion in assets, has a significant market influence with the public statements of its CEO. After Fink's speech, the price of Bitcoin soared to over $115,500, indicating a positive market response to his views.

Key Developments Adopted by Institutions:

French Proposal: $48 billion national Bitcoin reserve, which may prompt the EU to follow suit.

SoFi Enters the Market: Launching crypto trading by the end of 2025, issuing stablecoins in early 2026, serving 9 million members.

BlackRock's Stance: The CEO publicly supports tokenization and recognizes the hedging role of cryptocurrencies.

Regulatory Improvements: Increased certainty in US stablecoin regulations, intensified debate on EU crypto policies.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Technical Level 117,600 USD Breakthrough is Key

(Source: Trading View)

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is currently trading close to $112,400 after pulling back from the double top resistance level of $117,600, where buyers failed to maintain upward momentum. The daily chart shows that BTC has formed lower highs within a short-term descending channel, indicating that after last week's rally, the price is entering a cooling phase. This pullback is seen as a healthy consolidation in technical analysis, building momentum for the next upward wave.

The 20-day moving average is flattening around $114,900, forming dynamic resistance; while the 50-day moving average is near $112,300, facing a test of short-term support. The candlestick pattern shows indecision in the market, with the appearance of spinning tops and small body candles, indicating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 49, reflecting neutral momentum, but if it falls below 45, there could be downside risk.

If it falls below $112,200, the Bitcoin price prediction may drop to the $108,600 region, which previously supported demand for the rebound earlier this month. This is a key support level as it represents the starting point of the recent upward wave. If this support level is broken, it may trigger a deeper technical correction, testing lower support levels.

Conversely, if it recovers to $114,900, the trend will shift towards the $117,600 neckline, and may further probe up to the Fibonacci extension levels of $120,500 and $124,100. A breakout above $117,600 is crucial, as this is the recently formed double top resistance level, and a breakout will clear the major technical obstacles, opening the path to higher prices. $120,500 and $124,100 are target levels based on Fibonacci extensions, and these levels often become natural pause points in an upward trend.

For traders, the effective breakout of Bitcoin price above $117,600 indicates a renewed bullish momentum, while holding above $108,600 means that the overall upward trend can be maintained. As market sentiment stabilizes and macroeconomic optimism continues to grow, with increasing global liquidity and institutional demand, the mid-term target of Bitcoin moving towards $130,000 remains achievable.

Institutional Demand New Wave and Macroeconomic Support

France's $48 billion proposal, SoFi's full entry, and BlackRock's CEO's public support collectively form a new wave of institutional demand. This demand differs from the retail-driven bull market of 2021 and is based on structural needs rooted in regulatory frameworks, regulatory certainty, and long-term strategic allocations. Such institutional-grade buying is typically more stable and durable, not easily exited due to short-term market fluctuations.

From a macro perspective, the current environment is extremely favorable for Bitcoin price predictions. The Federal Reserve has entered a rate-cutting cycle, and lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding zero-yield assets like Bitcoin. Supportive cryptocurrency policies are spreading globally, with the United States, Europe, and the Middle East all promoting more favorable regulatory frameworks. The continued success of ETFs provides a compliant investment channel for Bitcoin, attracting institutional funds that cannot hold cryptocurrencies directly.

If the French proposal is approved, it will create a demonstration effect. Other European countries facing dollar dependence and inflationary pressures may reassess their reserve allocation strategies. Even if the proposal ultimately fails to pass, the discussions it has sparked have already elevated the perception of Bitcoin as a sovereign asset. This political recognition is a key step for Bitcoin toward mainstream adoption.