Analysis: Currently, the costs of short-term, medium-term, and long-term BTC holders are converging, which often indicates approaching the bottom of a bull run.

On October 30, analyst Murphy stated that based on the cost basis of different holder groups (short-term, medium-term, and long-term holders), the holding cost lines of each group repeatedly cycle from “expansion to contraction, then expansion, then contraction” over time. The expansion pattern represents a strong trend, while the contraction pattern indicates a weak trend. Between the expansion and contraction patterns, there will be a transition period of “cost reversal among different groups,” indicating the end of a weak trend. Currently, the cost basis lines of each group are showing a standard contraction pattern, and the costs among the groups are getting closer. If BTC is still in a bull run cycle, even if BTC is still in a weak trend (sideways fluctuation) market, its price is likely getting closer to the bottom range of a stage pullback. This analysis is for learning and communication purposes only and should not be considered investment advice.